Good news! The recession is over! A hearty "Huzzah!" all around!
Wait, aren't we all supposed to be magically better now? Shouldn't everyone who's looking for work be employed by now? Shouldn't those of us who were forced into furlough days and pay cuts be getting our money back? Hell, shouldn't we all be at the mall spending our new money and reveling in a burst of consumer confidence?
Not quite. Much like the recession wasn't officially declared until we had all felt it for over six months (a recession is loosely defined as two consecutive quarters of declining GDP), the recession is being declared over by economists who see signs of growth... even if that growth hasn't made it to everyone yet.
And, we might not feel better for a while. Often, businesses over-react in hard times and cut more personnel than they really need to. Then, they enjoy the lower costs for a while until their tiny staffs can absolutely no longer meet productivity goals. Then, when the business is expanding, they tend to hire more personnel than they need... setting up the whole vicious cycle all over again.
So, where are we now in that process? Probably nearing the end of the first phase... dramatically cutting staff. As a result, many economists think that unemployment will trump 10% and that hiring won't really begin until next year, at the earliest.
A little depressing.
On the bright side, the Dow just topped 10,000 for the first time in over a year. Too bad no one has any money to invest in the stock market. But, don't you feel better knowing those high-rollers out there are making their money back? =)
Wait, aren't we all supposed to be magically better now? Shouldn't everyone who's looking for work be employed by now? Shouldn't those of us who were forced into furlough days and pay cuts be getting our money back? Hell, shouldn't we all be at the mall spending our new money and reveling in a burst of consumer confidence?
Not quite. Much like the recession wasn't officially declared until we had all felt it for over six months (a recession is loosely defined as two consecutive quarters of declining GDP), the recession is being declared over by economists who see signs of growth... even if that growth hasn't made it to everyone yet.
And, we might not feel better for a while. Often, businesses over-react in hard times and cut more personnel than they really need to. Then, they enjoy the lower costs for a while until their tiny staffs can absolutely no longer meet productivity goals. Then, when the business is expanding, they tend to hire more personnel than they need... setting up the whole vicious cycle all over again.
So, where are we now in that process? Probably nearing the end of the first phase... dramatically cutting staff. As a result, many economists think that unemployment will trump 10% and that hiring won't really begin until next year, at the earliest.
A little depressing.
On the bright side, the Dow just topped 10,000 for the first time in over a year. Too bad no one has any money to invest in the stock market. But, don't you feel better knowing those high-rollers out there are making their money back? =)
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